Halligan: China, Not the West, Will Dominate World Economy
Liam Halligan, economist, broadcaster, and author of the weekly "Economics Agenda" column in London's Sunday Telegraph for 11 years, asserts and demonstrates in yesterday's column entitled, "A Return to an Old World Order," that the U.S. and other economies of the West are now clearly second to the economies of the East, spearheaded by the BRICS whether we like it or not.
Halligan "marches the facts":
--In 1980, China's annual economic output was just one-tenth of the U.S.; in 2004, it was half; in October, IMF stats showed China's annual GDP at $17.6 trillion, compared with $17.4 trillion in the U.S. This is hugely symbolic, says Halligan, as the U.S. has been the world's largest economy since 1872, when it overtook Britain.
--Since the early 1980s, China's average GDP growth has been 9.8%, compared with 2.7% in the U.S., a performance China achieved not by following the "Western model," but by "combining aspects of our market mechanism with state control..." Asia, Africa, and Latin America are increasingly impressed by the Chinese model, he writes.
"More importantly, says Halligan,
It is "unwise" for the West to "snub" such countries, and exclude them from the higher echelons of institutions like the IMF.
Halligan says trade talks are "in tatters," and East-West relations are at their lowest ebb for many years, and signs are that the conflict is growing.