Britain's Chatham House Revels in Bush Iraq Quagmire

May 18 (EIRNS)--In a briefing paper, "Accepting Realities in Iraq," the London-based Royal Institute for International Affairs (RIIA) -- also known as the Chatham House--said Iraq has fractured into regional power bases and there is no longer "a" civil war, but many civil wars and insurgencies which are on involving a number of communities and organizations struggling for power.

The report pointed out the critical destabilizing issues will come to the fore in 2007-8. Federalism, the control of oil and control of disputed territories need to be resolved. It also said that each of Iraq's three major neighboring states, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have different reasons for seeing the instability there continue, and each uses different methods to influence developments.

Turning its focus on Washington, the briefing paper says while the Bush Administration is still clinging to the hope that the situation in Iraq can be turned around, Chatham House pointed out that it is interesting to note the recent change in language regarding Iraq, particularly in the U.S. This began in the second half of 2006, as observers, senior military figures and politicians alike came to see the outlook as increasingly bleak. Previously confident "declarations of victory" began to be replaced with more cautious, even ominous, warnings of "hard times ahead" and an even more stark claim that "victory is still possible".

But Chatham House said even that ratcheted down optimism has no meaning. There are five stark realities in Iraq. These are: conflict and security--the management and eventual resolution of the numerous civil wars; breakdown of social cohesion; federalism--the negotiations over the federal structure of the state; oil--how do the center and the regions interact with international oil companies and distribute subsequent revenue?; and flashpoints--the status of disputed territories including those contested between Shia and Sunnis.