Estratega británico diseña plan para explotar vulnerabilidades rusas

January 19, 2008 (LPAC)--The first days of 2008 saw the publication, and international circulation through Johnson's Russia List and other Internet venues, of a British plan to cut Russia down to size. The title is "Russia & the West: A Reassessment," or The Shrivenham Papers #6 of the Defense Academy of the UK. The author is James Sherr, a British military analyst of Russia since the late Soviet period. While a disclaimer says that the content may not "reflect the views of the Ministry of Defense or Her Majesty's Government," the report dramatizes the extreme hostility to Russia on the part of leading circles in Britain, cited by Lyndon LaRouche during his webcast two days ago.

Sherr writes, "A powerful Russia is once again a fact of life. ... They have recovered pride in their own traditions and are determined to advance their own interests.... The post-Cold War partnership, founded at a time of Russian disorientation and weakness, is over.... Although Russia is not a global threat, it seeks to be both enabler and spoiler." Above all, Sherr berates Western leaders for having "underestimated" the Russian leadership's assumption that it should have "equal say" with other nations, concerning security issues in Europe.

The British analyst proceeds to catalogue weaknesses of the current Russian system, which could contribute to cutting Russia down to size. He expresses particular interest in the potential for internecine strife in the Russian intelligence and law enforcement community to undercut Putin's authority while he is still in office, or to disrupt an orderly power succession.

In the economic field, Sherr points to vulnerabilities in Russia's energy sector, which "is seen by many in the Kremlin as a foundation of the country's power and an engine of economic growth and modernization." The chief vulnerability, he suggests, is Gazprom's failure to develop new gas fields, making the Russian gas monopoly dependent on purchasing gas from other former Soviet republics, in order to meet domestic demand and also export. For Sherr, the most promising developments in the energy field are revitalized EU efforts to force Russia to change Gazprom's distribution practices, and "the alienation of Russia's traditional partners," among which he cites specific developments involving Germany, Sweden, Hungary, and Turkey.

After additionally dissecting vulnerabilities in Russia's military and diplomatic situations, Sherr concludes that "Russia is underestimating its own shortcomings and our potential leverage," and opines, "We should not."