November 15, 2007 (LPAC)--Yesterday, the House National Security Subcommittee, chaired by Rep. John Tierney (D-Mass.), held its third hearing on Iran, this time focusing on whether or not there are any military options. The witnesses included Col. Larry Wilkerson, former chief of staff to Colin Powell; retired Air Force Col. Sam Gardiner; retired CIA analyst Paul Pillar; and retired Marine Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper. The testimony of the four witnesses added up to the point that if the U.S. launched military strikes on Iran, the result would be a strategic blunder much worse than the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq.

Wilkerson said the result would be "disastrous," and argued that such strikes would spur the Iranians to accelerate their nuclear program, and would solidify the population behind the government. The U.S., he said, would gain very little from a military campaign against Iran and, instead "we would reinforce strategic failure." Gardiner went through for the subcommittee what the potential major military targets are in Iran and concluded that in every case, from Revolutionary Guard formations, to alleged terrorist camps, to nuclear facilities, the effectiveness of air strikes would be limited but would put the U.S. on the road to a war it could not end.

In private discussion with LPAC before the hearing started, Gardiner emphasized that once such a war starts, there's no way out.

Paul Pillar warned the panel that "Iranians would consider any action aimed at crippling Iranian nuclear capabilities as an act of war," and that Iran could be expected "to respond appropriately, in ways of its own choosing, and at times and places of its own choosing." He said that the most likely Iranian response would be in the realm of asymmetric warfare, and while it is presently hard to attribute any one act of violence in southern Iraq to Iran, "Tehran would have far less reason to exercise restraint" following U.S. military strikes.

General Van Riper argued that the present leadership of the Bush Administration has no comprehensive understanding of the complexities of international relations or the complexity of consequences that can occur when military force is used. "Our nation's leaders should be more humble when forecasting the results of specific actions in the international arena," he said, including when they contemplate confronting Iran, or any other nation, with military force.

Not brought up for discussion was the absolutely pre-requisite action for preventing a U.S. war against Iran in the first place, the immediate impeachment of Vice President Dick Cheney.