Aug. 24, 2007 (LPAC)--A new National Intelligence Estimate, released in a declassified summary, yesterday, concludes that although the addition of 30,000 US troops in Iraq has brought some reduction in violence, "Broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments." It also says that the "bottom-up" security initiatives that have reduced violence in Anbar province "represent the best prospect for improved security over the next six to 12 months" but only if they're accepted by the government in Baghdad. As for the viability of that government, the intelligence community "assesses that the Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition, Grand Ayatollah Sistani and other Sunni and Kurdish parties." On the other hand, "We judge that [Prime Minister] Maliki will continue to benefit from recognition among Shia leaders that searching for a replacement could paralyze the government."

In what appears to be a response to Congressional calls for a reduction in U.S. troops levels and a change in their mission, the NIE states that "changing the mission of coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counter-terrorist operations to prevent AQI from establishing a safehaven would erode security gains achieved so far."

No mention is made, in this unclassified summary, of the potential impact on the situation in Iraq of Dick Cheney's war plans for Iran, the Cheney plan to dump Maliki or of the Saudi role in the Sunni areas, in conjunction with those plans.