Estimates of Bank Losses Growing ... $1 Trillion, or Bust

November 27, 2007 (LPAC)--Banks have been very diligent lately, on estimating losses which banks (other than themselves) can expect from the ongoing financial blowout. While there is definitely no increase in the accuracy of the numbers, the one constant feature is: They keep on growing.

The latest report, done by analysts at JP MorganChase, puts the total damage from collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and financial derivatives contracts arising from subprime, "Alt-A" and other secondary mortgages, at nearly $260 billion dollars. This, they say, was excluded from the estimates made by several bank analysts--from Deutschebank, Goldman Sachs, UBS bank--of roughly $400 billion from the mortgages and mortgage-backed securities themselves. So JP Morgan's analysts are talking about $650 billion in all banks' losses from the collapse of the U.S. mortgage bubble.

According to their figures, Merrill Lynch, already socked with $17 billion in writedowns, could be the biggest loser with another $13.3 billion; and Citigroup stands to lose another $10.6 billion. Merrill canned their CEO Stan O'Neal in October, Citigroup canned Charles Prince III just two weeks ago. European Banks, such as Swiss UBS, and Deutsche Bank (Germany), are high on the list, along with Wall Street's favorite, Goldman Sachs.

A major factor (not considered by UBS) is the (yet to be publicly acknowledged) effect this will have on the nation's huge bond insurers, such as Ambac Financial Group and MBIA, Municipal Bond Insurance Agency. These agencies, which, it notes, have "taken few reserves," are likely to be facing losses of $29 billion or more. Losses from collateralized loan obligations, and other risky debt, could amount to an additional $45 billion.