Will Lebanese Stability Hold?

November 24, 2007 (LPAC)--The following news update, and all subsequent LPAC updates relating to the upcoming Annapolis Peace Conference, should be seen in the context of two statements made by Lyndon LaRouche:

LaRouche: "I'm Backing Peres Personally"

LaRouche: "Leave Pakistan Alone; Focus on Israel-Syria Talks as Basis for Peace"

The last act of outgoing Lebanese President Emile Lahoud was to turn security responsibility over to the Lebanese army, but, contrary what some press reports are saying, he did not declare a formal state of emergency, while warning that conditions for one exist. This appears to be a move whereby the army, the key neutral power in the country, will insure security for the next week, while talks continue to select a new president on the basis of consensus. From statements thus far made in Beirut, Washington, and various European capitals, this arrangement appears to be accepted by all sides, including the U.S. State Department.

The Lebanese and British press are reporting that the situation has a lot to do with the Nov. 26-27 Annapolis meeting, and whether Syria decides to attend or not. The handling of the Lebanon crisis, especially by the Bush Administration, will be a key litmus test on whether Syria goes to Annapolis, and whether there will be a shift in U.S. regional policy around the pivot of a Syrian-Israeli peace initiative, as Lyndon LaRouche has urged (see link above).

At midnight on Friday, Lahoud formally transferred security responsibilities to the Lebanese Armed Forces. The formal statement read out by Lahoud spokesman Rafik Shalala, was reported in the Daily Star: "There are conditions and risks on the ground that could lead to a state of emergency" and therefore the president handed over to the army the responsibility to maintaining order. The statement then said the current government led by the March 14 coalition was illegitimate and unable to assume the presidential powers in a "safe and constitutional manner."

Lahoud himself is quoted on the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation as saying, "The majority will be the losers in the end if they don't agree to elect a new president, either by consensus or at least with a two thirds [majority in Parliament]." "Lebanon is not America or France," he said. "It is a consensus democracy. No matter what Bush says, this government is unconstitutional and illegitimate. And they know it." It is also reported that Lahoud said that the Army should not recognize the government until a legitimate one is elected.

Although the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has repudiated Lahoud's statement, they have in fact accepted that the Army will assure security. Sports and Youth Minister Ahmad Fatfat said that there was "complete coordination" between the government and the military and the cabinet has "no doubts" about the commitments of Lebanese Armed Forces commander General Michel Suleiman."

Although the government held a cabinet meeting over the situation, the Defense Minister Elias Murr did not attend which would indicate that he, along with the army will stay neutral.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack declared in a statement that the Siniora government is assuming power in Lebanon, "With the expiration of President Lahoud's term at midnight tonight, the Lebanese cabinet will temporarily assume executive powers and responsibilities until a new president is elected by Lebanon's Parliament. This is the procedure stipulated by the Lebanese constitution and will ensure that the government is able to continue conducting its business without interruption." But then adds, "The U.S. government commends Lebanon's armed forces and security services for their stated commitment to ensuring law and order during this interim period, and we urge all Lebanese political groups to do their part to maintain calm and promote security for Lebanon's citizens."

Meanwhile Speaker of the parliament, Nabih Berri, head of the Shi'ite Amal, who postponed the next session where the Presidential vote could be conducted to Nov. 30, after the Annapolis summit, has been meeting with both the opposition and government MP's including Saad Hariri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. He has also met with Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir in a bid to continue the process of choosing the next president.

Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun has put his candidacy for President back on the table after his proposal for comprise candidates for President and PM were rejected by Saad Harriri who leads the ruling March 14th coalition in Parliament.

These statements suggest that there is universal agreement that the Lebanese Armed Forces will assume security control so the process of selecting a president will go forward.