Dereg Promises Bigger and Worse Power Blackouts in U.S.

November 17, 2007 (LPAC)--The North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) recently released its 2007 Long-term Reliability Assessment report, with alarming projections about the lagging of electrical capacity behind demand over the next decade. Peak demand will increase by almost 18%, while committed resources will increase by only 8.5%--less than half of demand, according to the report.

The main consequences of this lack of investment in power infrastructure will show up during peak demand--summer cooling in the U.S.--and will lead to converting a class of power assets termed 'reactive power,' over to real power assets to be sold to supply demand. This is a dangerous practice, because reactive power is power supporting the voltages that must be controlled for system reliability. If reactive power is inadequate, the grid can break down. "In 2003, one of the largest blackouts in U.S. history shut down much of the northeast electrical grid and left 50 million people in the dark. After months of investigative work by multiple entities and the FERC, a conclusion was reached that insufficient reactive power was the culprit," according to industrialinfo.com, which analyzed the report for its readership on Nov. 16.

Because reactive power is not sold on the market or to users, during peak demand, power is likely to be diverted from reactive uses to salable electric power where the money is to be made. This leads to vulnerabilities in the grid.

Much of this vulnerability, as well other negative consequences of an aging and inadequate grid, can be laid directly at the door of recent decades of deregulation. As the NERC report stressed at several points, rationally developing the grid to efficiently and safely distribute power to the user is a much longer process than bringing new power plants to completion--even nuclear plants--but especially natural gas plants, which can come online in as little as 18 months. The new corporate model of quick-build, quick-returns has left grid design, development, and upgrade out of its timetable. A rational electric grid cannot be successfully developed by the invisible hand of the fickle marketplace.